Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
